By: Marco A. Ayllon
Nautilus Science and Technology News
February 5, 2011
We estimating that Tablet shipments will grow by a factor of 12 by 2015, according to a report released late Thursday by NIS Dallas.
PC tablets plus Media Tablets, are expected to grow from 17.4 million units in 2010 to 242.3 million in 2015, the report said.
The article states that following the launch of the iPad, a wave of "Honeycomb"-powered Android devices will propel tablets forward, but that consumers expecting Windows tablets will have to wait. Over 80 tablets were reportedly shown at CES; Apple chief operating officer Tim Cook characterized the Android tablets shown there as "vapor".
"The significant growth of the tablet market from 2010 to 2015 will be driven by three successive waves of growth," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research at IHS. "The first wave, which is hitting in 2010 and 2011, was created by the arrival of the iPad and the ensuing tsunami of demand for the device.
The second wave, arriving in 2011 and 2012, will be propelled by a deluge of iPad competitors, particularly Android-based models. The third wave, which will turn up in 2013, will consist of a flood of models based on the Windows operating system that will expand the reach of tablets into traditional computer markets."
NIS broke down the tablet market into media tablets, like the iPad, which are designed to consume media by any operating system. Those tablets, expected to grow from 17.4 million last year to 202 million units and up in 2015, are expected to dwarf those that will run a PC-like operating system, which the research house equated with Windows. Those PC tablets will grow to 39.3 million units in 2015, up from 2.3 million units in 2010, the report said.
Although the iPad virtually launched the current generation of tablets, NIS predicted that it would lose its majority position by 2013, when Android tablets were more established and Windows tablets are expected to emerge. Alexander also said that tablet makers using the Android OS are pushing features that Apple has yet to include, including 4G.
"At least three of the major Android tablets released at the Consumer Electronics Show in January featured built-in support for a 4G wireless communications technology: long-term evolution (LTE)," said Francis Sideco, principal analyst, wireless communications at IHS. "With iPad only supporting 3G for now, it will be interesting to see the outcome of the battle pitting the allure of technology—i.e. LTE—against the appeal of usability—i.e. the iPad's benchmark user friendliness."
Mr. Alexander also said that there's a possibility that Apple could release a MacOS tablet as well. "The year 2013 will mark a critical juncture, as the tablet market turns into a battleground between media tablets using mobile operating systems, and PC-type tablets employing the Windows operating system," Alexander said. "Add to this mix the competition from ever-improving smart phones, and the mobile device market will get very interesting."
